California Drought Update
by Patrick Ruckert
March 26, 2015
Myths, Frauds and Insanity
To begin this week’s report I want to mention some of the myths, frauds and other insanities that characterize the discussion about the drought by some of the climate scientists, political leaders and media.
1) The first myth, or more accurately a fraud, is that California has one year of water left, then we will be in a serious crisis. Some refine that a little by specifying that there is one-year supply left in the reservoirs. Regardless, the truth is that the state is already in a serious crisis– it is out of water– that is out of an adequate supply to provide for all the needs of the population, industry and agriculture. It is quite amazing that all of the so-called authorities could continue to promulgate such an outright fraud. Perhaps everyone but the farmers of the Central Valley and thousands of households, like the people of East Porterville, whose wells have gone dry, do not count anymore. The Central Valley farmers are receiving this year zero or 20% of the amount of water they require from the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project. Last year they received even less. The forecast for the Central Valley is that one million acres of the world’s best farm land will lie fallow this year. Brushing off this disaster by claiming that the state has one more year is worst than irresponsible, it is criminal.
2) Virtually every press report that mentions water use in the state reports that agriculture uses 80% of the state’s water. What this supposedly shocking figure tends to evoke is stupid statements like, “we should cut off agriculture and give the water to the people,” as if people can get by with water and no food. That was a real comment posted to a recent article. The reality is that 50% of the state’s water is reserved for “environmental reasons,” like letting water run out the Delta to the Bay to obey the Endangered Species Act. Agriculture actually uses 80% of the state’s water that is consumed for human use, or, looked at in another way, 30% of the total of the water that flows through the state each year is used by agriculture.
Some organizations, like the California Water Impact Network, attempt to focus attention on what they consider to be “non-essential” crops, like almonds. They argue that since California exports most of the almonds grown in the state, we should cut-off the water to almond growers. They add that especially since most of the exports are going to China this should be done.
The March 20 comment on blaming the farmers for the affects of the drought by Families Protecting the Valley that, “In their opinion, if it weren’t for the farmers none of this would be happening,” is appropriate.
3) More frequently in recent months has been the complaint that Southern California steals the water of Northern California, via the State Water Project, which in normal years does send 1.2 million acre feet of water from the north to Southern California. Simply, there is no such thing as “Northern California’s water.” The following is from Article 10, Section 2 of the Constitution of the State of California:
“SEC. 2. It is hereby declared that because of the conditions prevailing in this State the general welfare requires that the water resources of the State be put to beneficial use to the fullest extent of which they are capable, and that the waste or unreasonable use or unreasonable method of use of water be prevented, and that the conservation of such waters is to be exercised with a view to the reasonable and beneficial use thereof in the interest of the people and for the public welfare.”
Further, Section 2 states that California practices appropriation law, and that water may be diverted to the property of those who do not have water on their own land if it ensures that the water will be put to beneficial use.
There it is. All the water of the state belongs to all the people of the state. There is no “northern water” or “southern water.” More fundamentally, Section 2 echoes the Preamble of the U.S. Constitution, in that the purpose of the government is to represent all the people and their posterity in every way.
Here is the Preamble:
“We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”
4) One final example. It has been reported again and again that since agriculture makes up only about 4% of California’s GDP, even if we lose it all it really won’t hurt the economy. For example here is my report on such a “study” from the October 13, 2014 California Drought Update:
“The Los Angeles Times on October 9, published an opinion piece, “Will the drought kill California’s economy?” The article reports on a study by climate researchers, mainly some of the university- connected people who have been quoted in recent months commenting on the drought. The study ran a computer simulation of what would the affects on California’s economy be if there was a 70 year drought. The study found that agriculture would be hit hard, with the state’s 8 to 9 million acres of irrigated crop land falling by at least one-half. But, as is claimed, since agriculture contributes only about four percent to the total economy of the state, then the impact would not be all that bad. Green lawns would disappear, water prices would sky-rocket, and the state would have to build desalination plants, but overall, things won’t be that bad. Not a word about the huge loss to the nation’s food supply or the devastation caused to millions of people.”
And to underline the insanity of the system that shuts down its industry, does not build infrastructure and considers money as a measure of value, here is a section from my California Drought Report of September 30, 2014:
“Brietbard.com on September 26, reports some statistics that demonstrate the de-industrialization of the state. Water use between the years 2000 and 2010 declined by 12% in the state, even with the population growing by 9% in those ten years. But, commercial and industrial water use fell 36% and 18% respectively. Water use by residential users fell 27% per capita in the same period. The falling use-rate is usually attributed to residents installing water saving fixtures and farmers using more efficient forms of irrigation, but the same cannot be said about industry. In that same time period nearly the entire aerospace sector and most of the auto sector shut down in California.”
These examples underline the truth that I have often reported. The nation and the state do not have a water crisis, but a cultural/political crisis. The existing culture of environmentalism and financial speculation, the anti-technology and anti-nuclear mentality, the idea that doing what is required is not practical nor affordable– that is the crisis, and unless that is taken on directly, the policies that can first alleviate and then solve the water problem in the West, will continue to sit on the shelf.
A first step in that direction, which I urge you all to take, is to join with the majority of humanity in creating a new relationship among nations based on economic development and the rejection of geopolitics. The Schiller Institute petition, linked below, should be signed and circulated aggressively.
http://www.schillerinstitute.org/strategic/2014/1121-brics-declaration-with-form.html
Despite all that we can report this week at least one challenge to stupid and destructive policies from the State Assembly. Assemblyman Adam Gray, a Democrat from Merced, who in a letter to Governor Brown on February 4, attacked the administration’s proposal to divert more than 350,000 acre feet of water from the Tuolumne, Stanislaus and Merced river basins.
Gray wrote: “It is ludicrous to demand we develop policies for sustainable groundwater and at the same time take away the single most important recharge element—irrigation water. That the agency responsible for compliance with the new groundwater law would even consider such action in one of our most threatened groundwater basins is mind boggling and offensive to those of us who live there,”
And the status of the drought is….?
Bad and getting worse.
The Drought Monitor for California dated March 24, indicates that just over 41 percent of the state is presently in “exceptional drought,” the highest category. Last week it was 39 percent. It should be recalled that until July, 2014, no area of the state had ever been in the “exceptional drought” status. The highest percentage of the state in “exceptional drought” last year was 58 percent.
At least the state’s northern reservoirs have more water in them than at this time last year, but as reported widely on March 19, the snowpack is at a record-breaking low level of 12 percent of average, which means much less stream flow will refill them as they are drawn down as the year progresses. For example, Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, reached a very low of 19% of capacity last fall and we can expect it to go much lower this year. Already some reservoirs, as I reported last week, are expected to go empty by July, which did not occur at all last year.
Thus, as the dry season begins the affect of both a much drier ground than last year and the warmer temperatures throughout the state means that by summer we will be experiencing downright dangerous conditions. Fire danger will become extreme, streams will run dry even earlier this year than last, more small towns will exhaust their water supplies as wells run dry, more draconian rationing will begin in the cities, and farmers in the Central Valley will fallow more than one million acres.
Here are a few specifics:
On March 21, it was announced that the town of Huron most likely will run out of water by July. Huron is in Fresno County and has a population of 7,000.
On March 24, Fresno County passed a drought emergency declaration. ABC-Fresno reported that, “Supervisor Henry Perea told Action News: ‘The message is twofold, one, is to the Federal Government and State Government we need resources not just deal with the immediate food supply, water supply issues for communities that are going to be hit the hardest but also to share with us the infrastructure dollars that will be coming to build and improve clean safe drinking water.’
“At the same time the county has also issued tough drought restrictions for five small water districts, on the west side of the Valley and in the foothills. The restrictions mean no outside watering.
“‘The message there is the people in those communities can only use water for basic survival needs. ‘ Perea said. “
San Francisco’s Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, was at just 57 percent of maximum storage capacity as of March 8, ten percent lower than last year at this time.
As this report noted last year, the California drought has been spreading north. Last week, Governor Jay Inslee of Washington State declared a drought emergency in three of the state’s regions. Both the Cascade and Olympic mountain ranges in Washington have less than a third of their normal snowpack this year. And in some areas it is as low as 10 percent.
It is even worse in Oregon, where Governor Kate Brown declared a state of emergency in two counties last week. Some of the Oregon Cascades measured zero snow on March 1.
Environmentalists vs. farmers once again
The Pacific Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council issued a report about ten days ago claiming that the state could save as much as 14 million acre feet of water each year if the state would just implement water saving measures. The quality of their report is highlighted by the section on agriculture, in which they claim that agriculture could save as much as 5.6 to 6.6 million acre-feet of water annually. Such savings could come, they write, by expanding adoption of key modern irrigation technologies and practices, such as drip irrigation and precise irrigation scheduling.
As quoted by Maven’s Notebook on March 23, Mike Wade of the California Farm Water Coalition responded, stating:
“California’s leading irrigation experts have repeatedly shown that the state’s potential for agricultural conservation is a mere 5% of the amount claimed by environmental activists at the Pacific Institute and Natural Resources Defense Council in the report cited in Friday’s Flashback. The questionable claim was based on a report by the Pacific Institute in 2009, “Sustaining California Agriculture in an Uncertain Future” and repeated again this year. It advances the notion that 5.5 – 6.5 million acre-feet of water could be made available simply through changes in agricultural water management practices.”
What are the pols doing?
On Thursday, March 26, the California Assembly passed the $1 billion drought package promoted by Governor Brown. This is not new money, but largely allocates existing bond funds. This includes $660 million for flood control (!) and $267 million for water reuse projects. $74 million will come from the general fund for aiding wildlife and farm workers who will loose their jobs as farmers idle more agricultural land.
Very little of the $7.5 billion bond passed by voters last fall has been allocated, and won’t be for years. Celebrating the passage of the bill Thursday, which does virtually nothing to either relieve the current drought and nothing to solve the fundamental problem that there simply is not enough water in California for even the current population, is worst than cynical, it is criminal.
In the next California Drought Update
Hoover Dam, the Colorado River and Hydroelectricity
The Salton Sea
And more