California Drought Update
March 12, 2015
by Patrick Ruckert
With the end of winter just a week or so away, and with it the official end of the California rainy season, it is time to review and report on the drought.
Let me begin with what I wrote in the Update of September 9, 2014:
1. This drought is the worst one in the entire history of California since records have been kept, and may be the worst in 500 years.
2. The rapid intensification of the drought is unprecedented, exemplified by 58% of the state being in “exceptional drought,” whereas until this year not even 1% of the state had ever been in that category.
3. This being “only” the third year of drought, and the possibility may be that we may be in a megadrought, the damage already done will not only intensify, but will probably reach a break-point when suddenly entire regions of the state will have no water.
4. The reservoirs throughout the state are rapidly being drained, and may be completely empty by next summer, thus pumping from groundwater is now providing more than 60% of the state’s water consumption.
5. The resulting rapid drop of the water table underlines both the immediate possibility of point 4., but combined with the disappearance of the last bit of moisture in the soil, highlights what the farmers are saying, that without significant precipitation this winter, next year’s crops will be a disaster.
6. The forecast for this coming winter is that there may be an El Nino or there may not be. But, regardless, even with an El Nino the expected precipitation is not expected to even meet the normal average amount.
A few weeks after I wrote the above, I forecast that the drought would continue into 2015, and intensify. I said at the time that by the summer of 2015, the Central Valley would be devastated and that the likelihood was that draconian mandatory rationing of water would be enacted by this summer. Some thought that my forecast was extreme.
Now, let’s look at where things stand. First, everyone has now joined the chorus, admitting that this is the worst drought in recorded California history and the worst in 500, or, 1200 years.
At this time last year zero percent of the state was in “exceptional drought.” We ended 2014 with 40 percent of the state in that category, after having risen to 58 percent during the year. Today, 40 percent of the state remains in exceptional drought. Also, the current percentage of California covered by the two highest categories of drought, “extreme” and “exceptional” is 67.46 percent, while last year at this time it was 65.89 percent.
The Reservoirs
The state’s reservoirs present a mixed picture. While the northern reservoirs, like Shasta, Trinity, Oroville and Folsom are above the levels of this time last year, they still remain well below the historical average, as does San Luis. The reservoirs in the southern half of the state have even less water than last year, with Exchequer at only 8 percent of capacity, and the New Melones Reservoir is projected to “go dry” sometime in August.
One of the state’s 10 largest reservoirs, Lake McClure, on the Merced River downstream from Yosemite, in February, fell to its lowest level since it was filled in the 1960s. Currently the lake is holding 63,000 acre feet, with a capacity of one million.
El Nino
Last summer there was extensive discussion of an El Nino for the December-January period, though if it did occur it was not expected to be a big one. Well, this week the climate people announced that the El Nino has arrived, but that it will do little or nothing for California. Here is a headline from the Los Angeles Times of March 7: “NOAA: El Nino is ‘too little, too late’ for California drought.”
The Snowpack
Probably the most disturbing development, in addition to the general lack of precipitation, is the temperature throughout the west this winter has been ten to twenty degrees above normal, thus the snowpack that the state relies on for up to 60 percent of its water supply almost does not exist.
The March 3 snowpack survey found the Sierra snowpack to be at 19 percent of its historic average, well below last year’s at this time and near a record low.
Already the predictions that this fourth year of drought will bring more damage to the state than last year are appearing. For example, as reported by Hydrowonk Blog: “UC Davis Professor Emeritus of Agriculture David Howitt projects that California will face $3 Billion in economic damages from the 2015 drought. He said, ‘There’s going to be significantly more pain this year than there was last year. I would be very surprised if the economic impact was less than $3 billion.’”
State and Federal Water Projects Announce Virtually No Water deliveries For This Year
The Federal Central Valley Project and the California State Water Project have now announced their allocations for this year. The Bureau of Reclamation, for the second year in a row (last year being the first time in its history) will deliver a zero allocation to farmers, and just enough to municipal and industrial users for health and safety requirements.
The California Department of Water Resources announced on March 2, that it will increase the projected allocation of the State Water Project water from last year’s 5-15 percent to 20 percent for this year. Though the statement added that that could change in the course of the year.
The state has not delivered 100 percent of its contracted amounts of water since 2006. Both drought and forty years of not building water infrastructure, in addition to environmental restrictions and the state’s population nearly doubling, means that the state will never again deliver its contracted amount. The chart below shows the amounts delivered for the past few years. The chart is from the March 3, 2015 statement: California State Water Project Deliveries for 2015 Increased Slightly Says California Department of Water Resources
The last 100 percent SWP allocation – difficult to achieve even in wet years because of Delta pumping restrictions to protect threatened and endangered fish species – was in 2006.
SWP allocations for recent years:
2014 – 5 percent
2013 – 35 percent
2012 – 65 percent
2011 – 80 percent
2010 – 50 percent
2009 – 40 percent
2008 – 35 percent
2007 – 60 percent
The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (WMD) will thus receive much less acre feet of water this year of its contractual allocation of 1,911,500 acre feet. The WMD provides water for almost the entirety of Southern California.
Jeffrey Kightlinger, the general manager of the MWD, in a speech in September, 2014 stated:
“We’ve gone through a little more than two-thirds of our storage in the last three years…. Obviously, this can’t go on indefinitely.” He said that at the current rate of use the reserves could be exhausted in about 18 months. That is the reality, he said, if there is not plentiful rain and snow in the coming months. If there is not, then the MWD could consider cutbacks to its regional distributors next year. If this is done then that could lead to rationing or cuts for households in Southern California. Such cutbacks could begin as early as January, 2015.
That was six months ago. The reserves now should be down to a 12 months supply. On March 2, the WMD issued a statement reiterating that its allocation plans to cut 2015 water supplies by 5 to 10 percent, to its 26 member public agencies, still stand.
From the March 9, 2014 release from WMD: “ Preparing for a potential fourth drought year, Southern California’s wholesale water importer today outlined scenarios that could require the agency to limit deliveries and prompt mandatory rationing throughout much of the region this summer.”
The statement added, “… a committee of the Metropolitan Water District’s Board of Directors laid out a range of possible water allocation actions—from zero supply restrictions to possible cutbacks of 5-10 percent or even more.
“With a forecast of 930,000 acre-feet in 2015 Colorado River deliveries, Kightlinger said Metropolitan could be forced to make significant withdrawals from the Southland’s remaining reserves to help meet water demands. Today, the region’s reserves stand at about 1.2 million acre-feet, less than half of what Metropolitan held in storage at the end of 2012.”
The below graphic is from the home page of the WMD, which shows, by their measure, that the reserves are nearing “empty.”
The Drought Spreads
As I reported last year, the drought encompasses the entire West. In addition to drought or near drought conditions over the past 14 years in the Colorado River Basin, the State of Oregon is approaching the intensity of drought experienced in California. Several articles recently have highlighted that. The San Francisco Chronicle on February 19, ran this headline: “California’s snowless winter worsening; Oregon also in trouble.” The article by Carolyn Lochhead quotes Anthony Atusa, seasonal forecaster for the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.mpetition at Squaw Valley, “The California drought, now in its fourth year, is ‘likely to persist or even intensify over a large portion of the Far West….’” Lochhead writes: “’Southern Oregon has been in bad shape for two years, but then it spread to eastern Oregon and now we’re looking at the whole state,’ said Kathie Dello, deputy director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University.”
Like California, Oregon this winter has had little snowfall, and like California, exceptionally warm temperatures. In fact, even Alaska has had record or near record high temperatures this winter. The Cascades Mountain range east of Portland has as little as 8 percent of normal snow now on the ground.
Washington State’s Olympic Mountain Range, on the Olympic Peninsula, has virtually no snow on the ground, measuring about 8 percent of normal. Again rain not snow has been the normal this winter.
And the Response Is:
The continued denial of reality by the political class and the inability to tell the truth by the water management system authorities. I have discussed this repeatedly and will not repeat that here.
An article in the Sacramento Bee on February 14, “State’s population growth expected to outstrip water conservation in coming years,” by Matt Weiser and Phillip Reese, underlines not only the inability to provide the state with adequate water supplies now, but demonstrates that the growth of the state’s population will ensure disastrous shortages, even in years of normal precipitation.
A quote from the article follows:
“A 2009 state law requires urban water agencies to reduce per-capita water consumption 20 percent by 2020, compared with use at the start of the century. Most agencies are on track to reach that goal, and have made even more progress thanks to emergency cuts over the past year triggered by the ongoing drought.
“However, by 2030, the data show, these savings will be more than erased by anticipated population growth. According to projections by the water agencies themselves, their total water deliveries will increase 16 percent by 2030 compared to their estimates for 2015.
“California’s population, already larger than all other Western states combined, is expected to grow 14 percent during that same period, reaching an estimated 44 million people by 2030, according to the state Department of Finance.
“If those projections hold, the result would be an additional 1 million acre-feet of water demand statewide – about equal to the capacity of Folsom Reservoir – by 2030. This would occur even as people use less water to meet the 20 percent reduction goal.”
The Solution
Again, I won’t cover ground that I have covered many times in these reports. But, the tremendous progress being currently made by the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in pushing forward the BRICS development bank, which will fund great infrastructure projects throughout the world, is what the U.S. must join.
I urge all the readers of this report to sign the petition initiated by the Schiller Institute. I have attached the link to this report:
Petition – The U.S. Must Join the BRICS
The U.S. and Europe Must Have the Courage to Reject Geopolitics and Collaborate with the BRICS
http://www.schillerinstitute.org/strategic/2014/1121-brics-declaration-with-form.html
Desalination
As I have often reported, the short to medium-term policy to build a future that will ensure abundant water for the nation and the world, must be the building of nuclear-powered desalination plants.
While the conventionally- powered desalination plant now under construction in Carlsbad for the San Diego area is scheduled to go on-line in December, Santa Barbara is now deciding to reactivate its built but never used desalination facility now. Other sites in California are also being discussed. But, these developments are far from what is required. The following article from EIRNS on March 6, reports on the Russian mobile nuclear desalination program:
“Russia Goes for Nuclear Desalination
“March 6, 2015 (EIRNS) -- Rosatom Overseas is aiming to sell desalination facilities integrated with large-capacity nuclear power plants to Russia's export markets. Dzhomart Aliyev, head of Rosatom Overseas, announced the new offer this week, saying the company estimated "a significant potential in foreign markets." His words follow the Feb. 10 agreement between Egypt and Russia to develop the design for a combined plant offering nuclear electricity as well as production of potable water through
desalination.
“Two desalination units are also being considered for potential inclusion in Iran's plans to expand the Bushehr nuclear power plant complex with further Russian technology. And an agreement between Argentina and Russia also included desalination with nuclear power cooperation. Rosatom proposes to integrate desalination capabilities also with small modular reactors, and floating nuclear power plants, in addition to using the waste heat from large reactors.
“Last September, the first meeting was held in Moscow of Rosatom's Overseas International Expert Council on Desalination, to promote the projects.”